Just like every year everybody has a list of MUST DRAFT players or guys they expect to BREAKOUT, there is also the other side of the spectrum, navigating the mine field of potential BUSTS. In fact, maybe no position sees as high of a bust rate as the RB position in Fantasy Football on a year to year basis. Naturally this is because we know this is also the most important position to your roster so there is a lengthy run on the position early and often. With that being the case, today we will share our list of Top 5 Big Name RB's with major Question Marks for the 2020 Fantasy Football Season that you might be better off passing on.
In all honesty, the sole reason that Cook finds himself on this list is due to his contract situation with the Vikings and the uncertainty with how that will progress. Outside of the contract issues, Cook should be a Top 5 RB on a run oriented offense that relies on him heavily. Unfortunately, the sad reality is that going forward RB holdouts will become more and more common as we have seen this for two years straight now (Le'Veon Bell in 2018 and Melvin Gordon in 2019). At this point in time we are about a month away from the potential start of the season and there have been conflicting reports about Cook, but he himself has proclaimed that without a reworked deal he will not be participating or reporting. While we ultimately believe that something will get worked out the closer and closer we get to Week 1, without a deal in place the higher and higher the risk grows for Dalvin Cook. The main problem with this of course would be if Cook's ADP is not readjusted properly and he continues to be an early 1st round selection. Of course at some juncture there will be a natural break even point where the reward outweighs the risk, but as it often tends to be with big name players we tend to give them the benefit of the doubt hoping for the large payoff. This coupled with the fact that Cook has had some injuries and the presence of very capable backup Alexander Mattison, then the Vikings might be a little bit more prone to wait this thing out which we have to prepare for in the fantasy community.
Right, first and foremost let's start with this: Nick Chubb is extremely talented, he almost had 1500 rushing yards last year and was second in the league in total rushing yards! IF this backfield was just Chubb and then a middle of the pack backup then Chubb would have no business on this list....but as we all know that isn't the case. In fact, the Browns might be the only team in the NFL where their backup, Kareem Hunt, is actually a better all around RB than their starter. Now maybe this doesn't hold as true in non-PPR leagues which is where Hunt will take away the most opportunities from Chubb but even last season we warned you that when Hunt returned that Chubb's production would change compared to the start of the season. And wouldn't you know it once Hunt returned in Week 10, Chubb only proceeded to put together 2 more weeks of over 15 points! Now let's apply that same logic to 2020 where Hunt will play the entire season and all of a sudden the thought of Chubb as a first round RB should makes you very nervous. And sure, the Browns upgraded their offensive line which will help the run game, but Hunt will also take away some carries from Chubb as he averaged 5 carries per game after returning in 2019. The final thing to consider in all of this is all the different mouths to feed offensively the Browns have other than Chubb: OBJ, Landry, Hooper, Njoku, and Hunt. Knowing all of these things we'd much rather take a chance on another RB in 2020.
Similar to some other guys on this list, this inclusion has everything to do with the situation and not the player. We absolutely LOVE Ekeler and think he is more than capable of being the main RB for the Chargers without Melvin Gordon, as we saw last year in fact. BUT, the departure of Philip Rivers complicates things greatly. All of a sudden now, all of the great offensive play makers for the Chargers like Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and of course Austin Ekeler can't be trusted to the same degree because of the unknown QB play that will come from either Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert. Now this isn't to say we are putting Ekeler on our Do Not Draft lists as we really like his upside and the volume should still be there, but just realize it will very difficult for him to duplicate 92 receptions for 993 yards again in 2020, which is where a lot of his value came from. While the uptick in rushing opportunities will cancel out some of the regression let's also not pretend like the Chargers offensive line is a great unit. Right now the best case scenario for Ekeler would be QB consistency because if the Chargers start to go back and forth between Taylor and Herbert then that will hurt the entire team similar to what we saw with the offense of the Dolphins in 2019 where they kept alternating between Fitzpatrick and Rosen.
We have gone in depth previously about all the reasons why we believe that Jones will be one of, if not BIGGEST regression candidates in all of Fantasy Football as we expect a major fall from his #2 RB finish in PPR formats from 2019. If you think otherwise then take a look at the stats below and maybe rethink drafting Jones as a Top 5 or even Top 10 RB in 2020:
Aaron Jones was in a timeshare where he saw bout 66% of the carriers in 2019 and this was prior to the drafting of A.J. Dillion who figures to take away even more opportunities
Jones lead all RB's in total TD's which we know is a category very likely to regress
Jones was wildly inconsistent with 5 BUST games (less than 10 points), 5 games with less than 100 total yards, and also 4 games where he was outproduced by Williams.
A lot of the success Jones had (his two best weeks) was when Davante Adams was injured and upon his return Jones never duplicated those performances
The Packers showed on multiple occasions that they were not afraid to sit/limit Jones if he was struggling and feed another RB instead
This inclusion honestly might as well read "Every Rookie RB" but we wanted to specifically include the most hyped guy of the bunch which is by far CEH. First and foremost let's address the elephant in the room being the current pandemic that is taking place in the world which as expected has affected the NFL landscape as well. In fact, one of the most impacted group of players by this is undoubtedly the incoming rookie class. The reason for this is that unlike other years, player and coach interactions are severely limited along with reduced training camp and practice periods. But probably the biggest factor is that the ENTIRE 2020 preseason has been cancelled which often times many rookies relied on to get in rhythm and beat out veteran competition. Couple this with CEH's current ADP of a 2nd/3rd round selection and this screams RISK! And yes, we realize that we are dealing with the KC offense and Patrick Mahomes, but let's not forget about Damien Williams. While Williams was hurt last season once the playoffs hit he became the workhorse for KC and handled that role very well so we know that he can manage the primary RB role. All we are saying is that before going all in on these rookie RB's, in this case CEH, go ahead and weigh your other options at that point in the draft like a Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, or James Conner who are all in a better position to succeed in 2020 as of right now.