Updated: Jun 20, 2020
Every year when we get into the fantasy football season and start preparing for our drafts we focus on who are the MUST OWN players, but a category that is just as important if not more so is who are the group of players we should AVOID. This year, there are probably several names that come to mind but we want to talk about who we believe will be the poster child of this group and that is Packers RB, Aaron Jones.
2019 Season Recap
Before looking at why we are so low on Jones for 2020, let's take a look at his 2019 season and break that down a bit further. Jones played 16 games and finished the year with 236 rush attempts for 1084 yards and 16 TD's along with 49 receptions for 474 yards and 3 TD's. Those stats were good enough for him to finish as the #3 RB in Standard formats and #2 in PPR formats. By all accounts that is a sensational season!
But when you look at a week by week breakdown of his performances some worrisome trends emerge like the fact that Jones had 5 games where he had less than 10 fantasy points in total! Another stat the jumps off the page is the ridiculous TD number Jones posted as he led the NFL in total TD's at the RB position. While that is great to see we all know that TD's are usually the most likely category to see a regression and fluctuation on a year to year basis. Statistically speaking Jones had his two highest scoring performances in Weeks 5 and 8, coincidentally enough that was during the period of time where GB was missing arguably their best weapon in WR, Davante Adams. Also of note is the fact that GB backup RB, Jamaal Williams outscored Jones on FOUR separate occasions. And even when Williams wasn't outscoring Jones he was still handling a good amount of RB duties as he had 107 rush attempts in only 14 games. This comes out to roughly owning 1/3 of the Packers backfield duties. Further breaking down Jones' biggest performances you see that there were 5 separate occasions during which he did score over 10 fantasy points (Weeks 3, 4, 7, 10, and 15), but however finished with under 100 total combined yards which further amplifies how important TD's were for his 2019 campaign.
But enough of looking back at the past let's shift to where we currently stand.
2020 Fantasy Outlook
In all honesty, pretty much immediately after the 2019 season ended ADP had labeled Jones as one of its biggest regression candidates. And this was all before the NFL Draft, which saw the Packers draft A.J. Dillion in the 2nd Round! If you're wondering why we felt this way, well let's recap:
Aaron Jones was in a timeshare where he saw bout 66% of the carriers in 2019 and this was prior to the drafting of A.J. Dillion who figures to take away even more opportunities
Jones lead all RB's in total TD's which we know is a category very likely to regress
Jones was wildly inconsistent with 5 BUST games (less than 10 points), 5 games with less than 100 total yards, and also 4 games where he was outproduced by Williams.
A lot of the success Jones had (his two best weeks) was when Davante Adams was injured and upon his return Jones never duplicated those performances
The Packers showed on multiple occasions that they were not afraid to sit/limit Jones if he was struggling and feed another RB instead
At the end of the day we believe that all these factors will hurt Jones and lead to regression across all stat lines. There is simply no way that Jones will reproduce his #3 and #2 finishes in fantasy scoring in 2020 and the much more likely scenario is that he finishes outside the Top 10 scoring RB's. Sure there is potential with Jones but the smarter bet is to treat him as a late 2nd round pick with big BUST potential.