Every year we focus on the MUST OWN Fantasy Football offenses, but in the same breath when we do this we have to also identify the Fantasy Football offenses that should be AVOIDED!
When we say fantasy football offenses to own the idea is high octane NFL offensive teams that produce a lot of scoring opportunities, are efficient in scoring, put up a lot of yards, and have several reliable fantasy players offensively (i.e Saints, Bucs, Falcons, etc.). Conversely, offenses that we should AVOID are those that are lower scoring, have below average QB play, and don't have reliable top tier offensive weapons. With that being said, today we highlight our BOTTOM OF THE BARREL offenses that you should stay away from in the 2020 Fantasy Football
Season. Our list includes:
With the Redskins the issue starts at QB as ADP does not believe that Dwayne Haskins is a reliable QB option. Haskins failed to impress in 2019 and the short period of time where he was average was vs. struggling defenses and late in the season when teams were already either looking forward to the NFL Draft or the playoffs. New HC, Ron Rivera is also a defensive minded HC who even traded for former Carolina starter, Kyle Allen, during free agency. The one offensive name you will hear for Washington is Terry McLaurin as an emerging sophomore WR, but again his
production will greatly depend on the QB play throughout the year which is questionable at best, which effectively makes it hard to grade McLaurin as anything higher than a mid-tier WR 2 in fantasy. The RB situation is even worst as the most trusted RB is 35-year old Adrian Peterson since once highly touted Derrius Guice just can't stay healthy. Neither are even Top 25 RB options in fantasy. The release of Jordan Reed also makes the TE position difficult to trust.
New York Jets
The Jets will likely improve a bit compared to last year, but we still need to see consistent production from young QB, Sam Darnold. The offensive line was awful in 2019 and was a big reason why the Jets struggled and even though there were some upgrades in free agency/the NFL Draft we don't expect an overnight turnaround. The biggest name offensively for the Jets is Le'Veon Bell at RB, but his days as a dominant fantasy player seem to be behind him. Bell mostly saves some value due to what he can do as a pass catcher (value lost in Standard formats), but you also have to wonder about intention of the coaching staff as to how to use him since there is a clear clash between Bell and coaches. The addition of Frank Gore in free agency while not devastating will nonetheless sap volume and already questionable production from Bell during the year. At WR the Jets have a blend of low-end WR 2's and high end WR 3's with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and rookie Denzel Mims, but none are Top 25 options. Finally, at TE there are a few sleepers in Chris Herndon and Ryan Griffin but they will both limit each other's production and will most likely finish outside the Top 15 TE's.
New England Patriots
This is the perfect example of how a team/offense can change after the departure of a franchise QB, in this case Tom Brady. And while there are still some solid weapons offensively like Julian Edelman, James White, and Sony Michel they can not be trusted with unknown QB Jarrett Stidham under center. We predict that Stidham, who seems like to favorite to be the season long starter, will fail to reach 4000 passing yards and offensive scoring will decrease compared to 2019, with turnovers expected to increase. The RB situation in NE is also tough since as of late there has been a combination of RB's dependent on game flow which makes all the options hard to trust. As a result, all of the names we mentioned above and others will not be WR 1 or RB 1 options and their best case scenario might be low end WR 2/RB 2 type production.
Last year the Jaguars actually had several surprise breakout fantasy players in both Leonard Fournette and D.J. Chark and those two for the most part are still the main names to know in the offense. However, the league wide consensus is that the Jaguars will be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2020 and could likely
hold the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. While this doesn't necessarily correlate to poor fantasy production the Jaguars sure are putting a lot of faith into unproven second year QB, Gardner Minshew. We at ADP personally expect a fair share of struggles
from Minshew and wouldn't be surprised if he gets benched at some point and the Jaguars select a new QB in the 2021 Draft. If that proves to be true then every weapon on this offense will go through major streaks of inconsistency during the 2020 Fantasy Football season. Granted, Fournette does have the potential to be a RB 1 again but we expect a dip in his pass catching which will hurt his value a bit.
Note: As crazy as it might seem the Jaguars might be the biggest stretch of teams to include on this list as Fournette does have RB 1 value and if Minshew plays adequately Chark could duplicate his success from last year.